There is a hefty war going on in Syria, tensions in Gaza have still not disappeared and the civil war in Ukraine still turns bloody. Sounds awful, but political scientists leave just a sigh of relief.
Indeed, it is a fact that over the last fifty years have fewer conflicts than ever before. According to a group of Norwegian researchers, their data gives the indication that the future may look even more peaceful. Håvard Hegre, the leader of the study and professor at the University of Oslo, claims that the number of conflicts will be halved in 2050 – with the biggest reduction in the Middle East.
A spirited argument, which obviously does not come from anywhere. Hegre, together with his colleagues at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, a statistical model based on composite components such as mortality, education, youth population, ethnicity and conflicts in history. They have made the current data 18,000 times by the model they drew conclusions.
The researchers focus on internal armed conflicts between governments and organized groups, so Hegre tells TIME Magazine. Hegre: “Internal wars know more casualties and last longer.” Although the world is becoming more peaceful, certainly not excluded new conflicts. The biggest risk countries between now and 2050, according to Hegre are India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Tanzania.
However, the potential for conflicts is getting smaller. How can this be? “It is difficult to link it to one factor, but the education level seems to be the key. For example, India is still on the list because of the huge size of the country and the violent history in the north, but the country has invested course in education – which they significantly reduce the risk of internal conflict.
A second important factor is the economic condition of a country. In Europe, the probability of a conflict, for example, quite small. That’s according Hegre by the large investment in international trade. “A war would destroy all those networks. In other words: the more you have to lose, the less chance of a war. ”
To return to the question in the headline of this article, it is impossible to predict. Local political landscapes have more influence than previously thought. However, the future looks pretty peaceful. Let’s just try to be optimistic as he does, right?